Manchester City — Real Madrid: The Final Before The Finale?
On one half of the bracket, the fierce rivalry of the Milanese clubs turned out to be a much tamer duel over two legs than the scriptwriters would have hoped. On the other hand, is a clash of the titans that is no closer to a resolution. Ninety minutes of action could not set apart Manchester City and Real Madrid last week Tuesday. In the eyes of many punters, the victor of the fixture at the Etihad Stadium will go on to win the Champions League itself. Few outfits could dare to rival the quality of these squads and their managers, whose distinct management cultures produced a closely fought encounter.
Both camps have due reason to believe in their prospects of success. On the one hand, Madrid exuded the self-conviction that defined their triumph on the European stage. On the other hand, Manchester City still departed with a draw following a display that did not reveal all their sharpest weapons. So where do the margins for success in this semi-final lie? A review of the first leg shall set the scene.
Efficiency, impulse and infallible self-assurance
In the first 25 minutes of the first leg, Ancelotti’s men gave up 72% of the possession to the visitors. Such surrender of the initiative was a sensible scheme. Few dare to rival City for control of the game with the ball, and sitting in lower blocks in big games is not foreign to the reigning champions. PSG, Chelsea, City, and Liverpool experienced long dominant phases in their victorious campaign last year. A little luck might have helped on the way, but that outfit could not have managed all these storms they encountered without a streetwise mentality and management of duels in their defensive work.
Here, the hosts did not sit off passively to a fault. Nor were any players guilty of the blatant individual mistakes that City punished on their way to the final four. One can no longer talk of Toni Kroos solely as a passing machine from the left halfspace. He acted as a protective six, shuttling between securing gaps and marking Kevin de Bruyne. To his outside was Eduardo Camavinga: a trained midfielder that excelled on the night as a left back, shackling Bernardo Silva. Antonio Rüdiger stood out as the next man up in place of Éder Militão, an absentee due to a suspension. His brash defending contrasted with the positional mastery of David Alaba, but the two stuck to their task and kept Erling Haaland quiet.
Much has changed in the white camp of the capital in the last twelve months, and much has remained the same. Ancelotti did not pursue tactical domination because he knew the moment to strike would come. One shot, one goal, and Vinícius Júnior had claimed the advantage in the 36th minute. The dynamism of the Brazilian lieutenants from the flanks and the silky slaloming of Camavinga’s exit was the invite for the veterans to strut their stuff in the second half. Freeform and yet finely in tune with the intent of their peers, Los Blancos are a unique spectacle in the game. The players know how to manage each and every game state, and their boss is equally unflappable in his faith in this wisdom.
36th minute: buildup to Real Madrid’s goal in the first leg. Camavinga’s transitional dribble escapes pressure from Bernardo and Walker, particularly, is in a halfway house between engaging the ball carrier and staying in the defensive chain. As was the case a few times against Bayern Munich, the last line here of defence has dropped a little too low and too passively to guard against deep runners.. But where Leroy Sané was wasteful on several occasions, Vinícius strikes ruthlessly in front of goal.
Carlo’s checkmate to the chess master
No matter how hard Pep tries, he cannot hold back Madrid for a full match. In the classic conception of his game model, calm command of possession, high pressing, and furious counterpressing all feed into the pursuit of total domination. If it works, the master plan does not afford the opponents even a moment’s rest, and this crushing control wears down the will of enemy defences sooner rather than later. But the elite stars on the field have not complied at this point of the competition. Account for the conservatism that tinges this strategy for away days in Europe and the perennial Pep problem is born.
So Pep has reunited with the same stumbling block armed with a different solution. And John Stones is a cornerstone of this scheme. Four classic (central) defenders sit in the backline, but the manager obsesses with the same goals as before. Stones now advances from center-back or in from right back as the second part of the double pivot in their 3–2–4–1 offensive structure. He can even venture higher in the right halfspace to produce a midfield diamond, while Kevin de Bruyne arrives dangerously in open spaces. At the same time, more security out of possession in a deep lying block and individual duels has profited City. Yet all these machinations could only amount to a 1–1 draw at the Bernabéu.
23rd minute: offensive sequence from Manchester City in the first leg. Stones’ advancement into the midfield, isolations of Bernardo Silva on the wing and de Bruyne’s movements from the halfspace channelled most final third breakthroughs through options to the right of their offensive structure.
Stones was a central piece to this story. Haaland was under lock and key, but other openings had been available. Madrid’s makeshift back fives, in which Kroos and Federico Valverde clogged up the gaps on the last line for runners, invited Stones and Rodri to stride forward from deep. Swathes of central space inside the defensive block were free to access. But one man’s freedom is another man’s prison.
Deep ball carriers frequently took too long on the ball to commit to a decision. Their offensive teammates were not always well placed to support them. Ball contacts from Gündogan were almost only in front of the midfield; the rotations of de Bruyne and Bernardo Silva rarely infiltrated the center. Pep’s men were reluctant to be risky, but the hosts had already set out the terms of the contest to coax City out of the comfort zone of their usual instructions. If Madrid are mentality monsters, they also have a habit of getting into the head of their enemy. Are we due another case of ‘overthinking?’
33rd minute: ball loss from Manchester City. Rodri shifts to the right, pulling away Benzema from Rúben Dias. The central defender chooses to commit to a ball carry, advancing into the free space. Alaba and Rüdiger block any deep runs from Haaland and Valverde’s deep positioning ushers de Bruyne away from the last line. In such situations of ball carries, Stones and Dias often went into reverse gear or Madrid can steal possession as Vinícius does here with his backwards pressure.
Controlling the chaos, managing the margins
Sometimes the instinct of your stars will bail a manager out of trouble. The focus on depth protection and a loss of concentration from Rodrygo opened a shooting lane for de Bruyne from the edge of the box to bring City level in the second half. It was a moment of inspiration in a performance that encouraged Pep to search for a way that his men could be “more fluid and play with more rhythm.”
A similar puzzle materialized at home to Leeds United, against whom they won 2–1 in their last match before the first leg. Marc Roca and Weston McKennie closed the inside channels, so Gündogan and Rico Lewis were freer at the bottom of the box midfield. But runners from the wings into the center and vertical combinations were much more common. Ball losses in these situations could have given Madrid space to launch transitions in the first leg, but one could see such patterns as the way forward.
21st minute: offensive combination against Leeds United (06.05.2023) Haaland pins the central defenders and City use the 4 v 3 in the middle of the field to generate central interaction between Julian Álvarez and de Bruyne. The Belgian faked to run deep, then draws out Roca to the ball. Álvarez has moved in the blindside of McKennie, forced to engage Gündogan, and then gets free behind Leeds’ midfield. The coverage of Roca also opens room for Haaland to hit on the last line.
Haaland is not the only star striker that all eyes will be on for the fixture. Karim Benzema, and his fellow veterans, have retained their manager’s faith to grasp control of contests with their work in possession. Ancelotti’s answer to the weapons of City in the final third alluded to this point in his interview before kickoff. Madrid may only need one opening to strike, but an aggressive, offensive opponent cannot do as much damage if they do not have the ball. The chaos of the seven goal thriller in 2022 does not play so well into his hands now, and his choice of eleven might reflect that shift. The wily old fox will be sure to dip into his bag of tricks to complicate the plans of his opposite number.
Prediction
City have the backing of the fans in their corner, an array of tools to be more explosive on the ball, and marginal gains in both boxes that have provided them a new edge in the last few months. But Madrid are the kings of the competition for good reason: no one else is a better reminder that the game is not over until the final whistle. The hosts hold the upper hand, but rule out Real at your peril.